The Fox article by Justin Haskins is disturbing but perhaps an opportunity to take on climate deniers, point by point. Here’s the important excerpts:
“ Although certain parts of the United States have undoubtedly experienced strong heat waves this summer, there’s (1.) no reason to believe these weather events are evidence that the world is hurtling toward a climate change catastrophe. In fact, the best available evidence suggests that heat waves recorded a century ago were more problematic than anything we’re seeing today.
...According to data from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, ...by the Environmental Protection Agency, (2)the annual heat wave index for the contiguous 48 states was substantially higher in the 1930s than at any point in recent years. In some years in the 1930s, it was four times greater or even more. [This refers to the Dust Bowl heat waves of the 30s) ]
Additionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a large database of daily temperatures that goes back to 1948… [3]According to NOAA, huge swaths of the United States have experienced a significant decrease in abnormally hot days recorded since 1948, especially in the Midwest and northern and eastern Texas. [See graph below in Heartland’s link.]”
So I did more digging and retraced the author to the Heartland Institute, who’s website reads like a Bush era promotion of fossil fuels and strong economies outweighing bleeding heart liberals crying wolf.
Here’s the recent Heartland Institute’s article making similar claims:
After I took some deep breaths, I began my amateur research and logical thinking and found:
1. The main “evidence” that these Heartland folks are using to nullify climate change come from cherry picked local US data, totally out of context compared to WORLD data. Their supposition that the EPA and NOAA are conceding that there’s no real crisis is not the impression you get when you go to their actual websites:
Climate Change Indicators: Heat Waves | US EPA
- Heat waves are occurring more often than they used to in major cities across the United States. Their frequency has increased steadily, from an average of two heat waves per year during the 1960s to six per year during the 2010s and 2020s (see Figure 1).
- In recent years, the average heat wave in major U.S. urban areas has been about four days long. This is about a day longer than the average heat wave in the 1960s (see Figure 1).
- The average heat wave season across the 50 cities in this indicator is about 49 days longer now than it was in the 1960s (see Figure 1).
- Heat waves have become more intense over time. During the 1960s, the average heat wave across the 50 cities in Figures 1 and 2 was 2.0°F above the local 85th percentile threshold. During the 2020s, the average heat wave has been 2.3°F above the local threshold (see Figure 1).
- Of the 50 metropolitan areas in this indicator, 46 experienced a statistically significant increase in heat wave frequency between the 1960s and 2020s. Heat wave duration has increased significantly in 29 of these locations, the length of the heat wave season in 44, and intensity in 17 (see Figure 2).
- AND HERE’s WHERE THEY CHERRY PICKED:
- Longer-term records show that heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe in recorded U.S. history (see Figure 3). The spike in Figure 3 reflects extreme, persistent heat waves in the Great Plains region during a period known as the “Dust Bowl.” Poor land use practices and many years of intense drought contributed to these heat waves by depleting soil moisture and reducing the moderating effects of evaporation.6
So yeah, while the Dust Bowl was an extreme event, the EPA is NOT assuming its isolated example refutes present world climate change. And in fact:
2. The climate denier Dust Bowl argument falls apart when you realize that although temps were indeed extreme, this was a local US event, not reflected in simultaneous heat waves elsewhere in the world as is the case now.
3, Here’s a Washington Post article from last year that explains this further:
Why the 1930s Dust Bowl made the Plains hotter than this week's heat wave - The Washington Post
Why the Dust Bowl doesn’t disprove climate change
“Since the event, the United States has warmed about a degree-and-a-half due to human-induced climate change — but the Dust Bowl remains a favorite anecdote for some who deny climate science.
Steve Milloy, an outspoken opponent of climate scientists and a former member of President Donald Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency transition team, frequently cites Dust Bowl-era observations in efforts to undermine recent climate warming.
“July 20, 2022 was hot in the US for sure. But not nearly as hot as July 20, 1934,” he tweeted on Tuesday, the day that both Mangum, Okla., and Wichita Falls, Tex., hit 115 degrees.
Atmospheric scientists, including many PhD researchers who have published peer-reviewed studies, assert that comparing the events is like comparing apples to oranges.
“For me, the main issue with the ‘1930s were hot’ meme is that a global perspective shows that the very hot part of the planet was quite small,” wrote Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M, in an email. He shared a plot of temperature anomalies during 1936, noting the greatest departure from average was localized only to the Plains and the Canadian Prairie.”
Reasonable thinking people who have an actual memory of their own past summers and winters know that things are headed to a dangerous place. I know Biden has addressed this but I wish his voice was louder. The challenge here is to expose the Heartland/Fox narrative as misleading and WHY this push to deny climate change in the first place.
Suggestions?
